Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?
Started
Sep 29, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are biofuels with similar properties to conventional jet fuel that are used to power aircraft, and recently synthetic biology has been used to create new SAFs. Cemvita Factory uses synthetic biology to convert carbon dioxide into SAF and other chemicals. In March 2022, United Airlines Ventures and Oxy Low Carbon Ventures announced a collaboration with Cemvita Factory to commercialize synthetic biology produced SAF production.
This question will resolve using official announcements, press releases, and/or quarterly reports from United Airlines. For the purposes of this question, “using” SAF produced by Cemvita could refer to use in test/demonstration flights or in commercial flights, with or without passengers, either as the sole fuel or as a part of a mixture. The announcement must indicate that the fuel was used on or before 31 Dec 2023. If no announcement has been made by 31 Dec 2023, or if an announcement only includes an intent to use the fuel but does not indicate that it has been used already, this question will resolve "No".
For more context on this topic, see the INFER blog:
Question clarification
Issued on 05/25/23 05:21pm
As noted in the resolution criteria, "using SAF produced by Cemvita could refer to use [...] either as the sole fuel or as a part of a mixture." As such, Cemvita does not need to produce the fuel in its entirety to count towards resolution. For example, if United Airlines uses a sustainable aviation fuel containing Cemvita products, that was produced as a result of United Airlines Ventures collaboration with Cemvita, and United mentions Cemvita in the announcement, the question would resolve as "Yes".
As noted in the resolution criteria, "using SAF produced by Cemvita could refer to use [...] either as the sole fuel or as a part of a mixture." As such, Cemvita does not need to produce the fuel in its entirety to count towards resolution. For example, if United Airlines uses a sustainable aviation fuel containing Cemvita products, that was produced as a result of United Airlines Ventures collaboration with Cemvita, and United mentions Cemvita in the announcement, the question would resolve as "Yes".
Issued on 05/25/23 10:27pm
"Fuel not produced by Cemvita in its entirety" and "sustainable aviation fuel containing Cemvita products" includes SAFs made from hydrocarbons/feedstock produced by Cemvita that are then refined by another company to produce SAF. An announcement by United that such a fuel was used in a flight would be sufficient for the question to resolve "Yes".
"Fuel not produced by Cemvita in its entirety" and "sustainable aviation fuel containing Cemvita products" includes SAFs made from hydrocarbons/feedstock produced by Cemvita that are then refined by another company to produce SAF. An announcement by United that such a fuel was used in a flight would be sufficient for the question to resolve "Yes".
Issued on 08/08/23 02:39pm
Gold H2 and eCO2 are Cemvita companies, so if United Airlines announces that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced in partnership with Gold H2 or eCO2, this question will resolve as "Yes".
Gold H2 and eCO2 are Cemvita companies, so if United Airlines announces that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced in partnership with Gold H2 or eCO2, this question will resolve as "Yes".
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.94% | |
| No | 99.06% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 118 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1104 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
