Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?
Started
Nov 21, 2022 08:00PM
Closed Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM (2 years ago)
Closed Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM (2 years ago)
Seasons
North Korea’s recent flurry of missile launches, including an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch on 18 November 2022, has raised expectations that it could soon test a nuclear device for the first time since 2017 (CBS). North Korea has finished all technical preparations for a new test in the underground tunnels at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test site, which has been shuttered since 2018 (Reuters). Officials in the United States and South Korea have warned for months that Pyongyang is preparing for a nuclear test after a five-year suspension — a move that would signal North Korea speeding ahead with the development of advanced weapons capabilities (Al Jazeera).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC). A nuclear test would involve the detonation of a nuclear device. Radiological devices (also known as "dirty bombs") will not be considered nuclear weapons (Mass.gov).
Additional Resources:
- North Korea Preparing for Nuclear Weapon Test as Regional Tensions Rise (Time)
- North Korea: What missiles does it have? (BBC)
- Kim Jong Un talks up North Korea’s nuclear threat after latest missile tests (CNN)
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6.03% | |
| No | 93.97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 172 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 590 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Dec 7, 2022 6:46PM EST (115 days before close, question was 12% complete)