Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?
Started
Nov 21, 2022 08:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Seasons
North Korea’s recent flurry of missile launches, including an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch on 18 November 2022, has raised expectations that it could soon test a nuclear device for the first time since 2017 (CBS). North Korea has finished all technical preparations for a new test in the underground tunnels at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test site, which has been shuttered since 2018 (Reuters). Officials in the United States and South Korea have warned for months that Pyongyang is preparing for a nuclear test after a five-year suspension — a move that would signal North Korea speeding ahead with the development of advanced weapons capabilities (Al Jazeera).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC). A nuclear test would involve the detonation of a nuclear device. Radiological devices (also known as "dirty bombs") will not be considered nuclear weapons (Mass.gov).
Additional Resources:
- North Korea Preparing for Nuclear Weapon Test as Regional Tensions Rise (Time)
- North Korea: What missiles does it have? (BBC)
- Kim Jong Un talks up North Korea’s nuclear threat after latest missile tests (CNN)
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6.03% | |
| No | 93.97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 172 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 590 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
