From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Yemen?

Started Jan 5, 2023 09:30PM
Closed Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)

This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of battle-related fatalities in Yemen for a given time period:

  • Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
  • Select “Battles” from the event type filter.
  • Select “Yemen” from the Region filter.
  • Click “Apply Filters”.
  • Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”

Additional Reading: 

Resolution Notes

ACLED recorded 2,090 or more fatalities due to battles in Yemen

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.28%
No 98.72%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 50
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 416
Average for questions older than 6 months: 228
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004487
2.
-0.004314
3.
-0.003913
4.
-0.002381
5.
-0.002309

Consensus Trend

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 8, 2023 5:47AM EST (358 days before close, question was 1% complete)
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