From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran?
Started
Jan 5, 2023 09:30PM
Closed Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Closed Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Seasons
This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in Iran for a given time period:
- Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
- Select the following event types:
- Violence against civilians
- Riots
- Protests
- Select “Iran” from the Region filter.
- Click “Apply Filters”.
- Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”.
Additional Reading:
- Iran protests: 'No going back' as unrest hits 100 days
- Iran Turns to Public Executions, Enraging an Already Protesting Public
- Iran: 40 people killed in protests over past week
Resolution Notes
ACLED recorded 100 fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.97% | |
| No | 99.03% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 51 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 470 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 228 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Feb 13, 2023 1:38AM EST (322 days before close, question was 11% complete)