Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023?
Started
Jan 12, 2023 08:00PM
Closed Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Closed Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Seasons
An “irregular transition” refers to any process that does not follow the regular legal democratic process for replacing heads of state. Examples of irregular transitions include coups, assassinations, and other forms of undemocratic removal. In contrast, regular democratic transition processes may be triggered by events like resignations, elections, or deaths by natural causes.
This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports (e.g., Reuters, New York Times, AP, BBC). In the event that it is unclear whether or not Ariel Henry is still president/acting president (e.g., there are multiple claims on the presidency, Ariel Henry loses control of parts of the country, or he is exiled), this question will be resolved based on confirmed reports of who the United States government recognizes as President of Haiti.
Additional Reading:
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.08% | |
| No | 99.92% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 53 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 464 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 13, 2023 1:43PM EST (353 days before close, question was 0% complete)