From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo?
Started
Jan 12, 2023 08:00PM
Closed Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Closed Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Seasons
This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of battle-related fatalities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo for a given time period:
- Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
- Select “Battles” from the event type filter.
- Select “Democratic Republic of the Congo” from the Region filter.
- Click “Apply Filters”
- Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”
Fatality counts from previous years are below:
Additional Reading:
Resolution Notes
ACLED recorded 1,319 fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.09% | |
| No | 99.91% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 49 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 449 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 228 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jun 20, 2023 3:37PM EDT (195 days before close, question was 45% complete)