From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?
Started
Jan 12, 2023 08:00PM
Closed Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Closed Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Seasons
This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in Mexico for a given time period:
- Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
- Select “Violence against civilians” from the event type filter.
- Select “Mexico” from the Region filter.
- Click “Apply Filters”
- Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”
Fatality counts from previous years are below:
Additional Reading:
Resolution Notes
ACLED recorded 5,656 fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 6,000 | 99% | |
| Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive | 1% | |
| Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive | 0% | |
| Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than or equal to 9,000 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 53 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 494 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Oct 5, 2023 10:19PM EDT (88 days before close, question was 75% complete)