Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?
Closed Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Question clarification
For the purposes of this question, if Taiwan were to join the United States' chip ban, the answer option "Any other country not listed" will resolve as "Yes".
https://www.reuters.com/technology/dutch-responds-us-china-policy-with-plan-curb-semiconductor-tech-exports-2023-03-08/
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/08/tech/dutch-china-chips-ban-hnk-intl/index.html
We are resolving this question as "yes" for Japan. On 31 March 2023, Japan announced new export restrictions that require companies to obtain a license in order to export certain semiconductor manufacturing equipment. China is subject to these restrictions, but the other largest manufacturers of semiconductors (i.e., South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States) are exempt (CNN). This follows the U.S.’s decision to place similar export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment and an agreement-in-principle between the U.S., the Netherlands, and Japan to restrict exports to China (New York Times).
On 10 March we treated the Dutch government policy statement to parliament as an official announcement meeting the questions criteria (Reuters, Government of the Netherlands). Japan has made a similar policy public (Reuters, Government of Japan) and so this question will also be resolved as "yes" for Japan. This was not a straightforward decision because of the way that Japanese officials have characterized that policy in subsequent statements. While these statements serve a diplomatic purpose, they do not alter the substance of the policy, which was publicly announced on 31 March.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Japan | 33% | |
The Netherlands | 60% | |
South Korea | 12% | |
Any other country not listed | 8% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 118 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
Number of Forecasts | 426 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |