From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces?
Started
Feb 10, 2023 08:00PM
Closed Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Closed Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Seasons
This question will resolve using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED). A spreadsheet containing select columns from events is available here. This spreadsheet will be updated monthly as new data become available. At the time of question launch, ACLED has recorded the following fatality counts:
- 2017: 683
- 2018: 1381
- 2019: 360
- 2020: 455
- 2021: 179
- 2022: 569
- 2023: 53
Additional Reading:
Resolution Notes
ACLED recorded 477 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.04% | |
| No | 99.96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 406 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Feb 10, 2023 3:00PM EST (325 days before close, question was 0% complete)