In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?
Started
Feb 16, 2023 03:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Seasons
This question will resolve using the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ list of Significant Cyber Incidents (CSIS). To qualify for resolution, a cyber incident reported by CSIS must directly reference quantum computing, such as by using the terms "quantum computer" or "quantum computing," or be associated with major media coverage referencing quantum computing.
Additional Reading:
- The scary future of the internet: How the tech of tomorrow will pose even bigger cybersecurity threats
- The Quantum Effect On Cybersecurity
Question clarification
Issued on 02/21/23 06:23pm
Quantum computers do not necessarily have to be used in the execution of a cyberattack for the question to resolve "yes". So if a quantum computer facility is the target of a significant cyber incident, this question will resolve "yes". For example, if IBM's quantum computing services are targeted in an attack, this question would resolve "yes". However, a cyberattack on IBM that does not target their quantum computing capabilities specifically would not count towards resolution. Additionally, an incident's association with quantum computing must represent some actual connection to the technology, (e.g., an attack perpetrated by a group named "Quantum Computer" but with no other ties to the technology would not be sufficient to resolve the question). In the event that it is not clear whether an incident's association with quantum computing is significant, the INFER team will use its best judgment to make a determination.
Quantum computers do not necessarily have to be used in the execution of a cyberattack for the question to resolve "yes". So if a quantum computer facility is the target of a significant cyber incident, this question will resolve "yes". For example, if IBM's quantum computing services are targeted in an attack, this question would resolve "yes". However, a cyberattack on IBM that does not target their quantum computing capabilities specifically would not count towards resolution. Additionally, an incident's association with quantum computing must represent some actual connection to the technology, (e.g., an attack perpetrated by a group named "Quantum Computer" but with no other ties to the technology would not be sufficient to resolve the question). In the event that it is not clear whether an incident's association with quantum computing is significant, the INFER team will use its best judgment to make a determination.
Issued on 06/07/23 08:54pm
This question will be resolved using the month and year recorded in CSIS' Significant Cyber Incident timeline. An entry must begin with "[Month] 2023:" to count towards resolution. In the event that no qualifying cyber incident has been added to the list at the time the question closes, the admin team will wait to resolve the question until March 2024 to allow for a possible lag in reporting.
This question will be resolved using the month and year recorded in CSIS' Significant Cyber Incident timeline. An entry must begin with "[Month] 2023:" to count towards resolution. In the event that no qualifying cyber incident has been added to the list at the time the question closes, the admin team will wait to resolve the question until March 2024 to allow for a possible lag in reporting.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.13% | |
| No | 99.87% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 113 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 812 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
