From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces?
Started
Feb 23, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Seasons
This question will resolve using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED). A spreadsheet containing select columns from events is available here. This spreadsheet will be updated monthly as new data becomes available. At the time of question launch, ACLED has recorded the following fatality counts:
- 2018: 0
- 2019: 5
- 2020: 1
- 2021: 50
- 2022: 79
- 2023: 0
Additional Reading:
Resolution Notes
ACLED recorded no fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.03% | |
| No | 99.97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 38 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 296 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
