From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces?
Started
Mar 09, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Seasons
This question will resolve using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED). A spreadsheet containing select columns from events is available here. This spreadsheet will be updated monthly as new data becomes available. At the time of question launch, ACLED has recorded the following fatality counts between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces:
- 2018: 25
- 2019: 9
- 2020: 6907
- 2021: 27
- 2022: 259
- 2023: 0
Additional Reading:
- Azerbaijan, Iran and Rising Tensions in the Caucasus
- Averting a New War between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Resolution Notes
ACLED recorded 562 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.05% | |
| No | 99.95% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 54 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 453 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
