Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?
Started
Mar 23, 2023 07:00PM
Closed Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Closed Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM (a year ago)
Seasons
In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a successor despite multiple votes, and the country remains in the hands of a caretaker administration (Associated Press, BBC).
This question will resolve “Yes” if the Lebanese parliament appoints a president on or before 31 December 2023, as reported by reputable open-source news media coverage (e.g., AP News, Reuters, New York Times).
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.28% | |
| No | 99.72% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 67 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 467 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jul 1, 2023 9:36PM EDT (184 days before close, question was 35% complete)