For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
For each of the 5 quarters listed, enter the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will drop below 40%. Note that probabilities across the quarters need not sum to 100%, and multiple answers can be correct.
The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world’s largest manufacturer of semiconductors and a critical supplier of the cutting-edge chips needed to produce everything from cars and computers to medical equipment and other modern electronics (Time, SIA). Consequently, interruptions in the U.S.’ ability to acquire semiconductors from Taiwan would have a devastating impact on supply chains (Forbes).
Quarter | % Revenue from North America |
---|---|
2022 Q4 | 69% |
2022 Q3 | 72% |
2022 Q2 | 66% |
2022 Q1 | 64% |
2021 Q4 | 66% |
2021 Q3 | 67% |
2021 Q2 | 64% |
2021 Q1 | 67% |
2020 Q4 | 58% |
2020 Q3 | 59% |
2020 Q2 | 58% |
2020 Q1 | 60% |
2019 Q4 | 59% |
2019 Q3 | 60% |
2019 Q2 | 69% |
2019 Q1 | 60% |
2018 Q4 | 69% |
2018 Q3 | 60% |
2018 Q2 | 53% |
2018 Q1 | 59% |
Revenue from customers based in North America accounted for 69% of TSMC's total net revenue 2023 Q3.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2023-10/1b3950499f2e6d02b6910adf903705404f829200/3Q23ManagementReport.pdf
Revenue from customers based in North America accounted for 66% of TSMC's total net revenue 2023 Q2.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2023-07/d0aea5e175f63c90dcd121adcd38da8b520537ef/2Q23ManagementReport.pdf
Revenue from customers based in North America accounted for 72% of TSMC’s total net revenue in 2023 Q4.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2024-01/894c1f6b900634fd7f369ef213bdfbf11c617297/4Q23ManagementReport.pdf
Revenue from customers based in North America accounted for 69% of TSMC’s total net revenue in 2024 Q1.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2024-04/9581a862df11956db366e0f18aa0f859e7e0b6db/1Q24ManagementReport.pdf
Revenue from customers based in North America accounted for 65% of TSMC’s total net revenue in 2024 Q2.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2024-07/2550bfd736184ea491797ba93a95bc28efa4348c/2Q24ManagementReport.pdf
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
2023 Q2 | 0% | |
2023 Q3 | 0% | |
2023 Q4 | 1% | |
2024 Q1 | 1% | |
2024 Q2 | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 80 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
Number of Forecasts | 594 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |