In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022)
Started
Jan 31, 2022 01:00PM
Closed Jun 29, 2022 03:59AM (3 years ago)
Closed Jun 29, 2022 03:59AM (3 years ago)
Topics
Seasons
The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence argues that establishing a regular, high-level diplomatic dialogue with China about artificial intelligence is key to developing and executing a strategy on how to remain competitive and safe as AI technology changes the world (NSCAI Report Chapter 9). Examples of ongoing bilateral dialog mechanisms are the Strategic and Economic Dialog under President Obama (National Committee on American Foreign Policy—NCAFP), the Comprehensive Economic Dialog under President Trump, and the Strategic Economic Dialog under President George W. Bush. Emerging technologies (e.g. artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotech) must be a core component of the dialog structure.
This question is a resolved time period from In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.01% | |
| No | 98.99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 80 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 282 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 228 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 31, 2022 8:00AM EST (148 days before close, question was 0% complete)