Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023?
Started
Apr 18, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Closed May 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Seasons
Thailand is set to hold its second general election since the 2014 coup which overthrew the previous government (Foreign Policy). Since the 2019 election resulted in the unelected military leader, Prayut Chan-o-cha, remaining in power as Prime Minister with a civilian but pro-military government, this election is seen as a critical test for the future of democracy in both Thailand and the wider region (VOA).
Last fall, Thailand’s Election commission set a tentative date for the election in May 2023, and in March, they confirmed the date as 14 May 2023 (Thai PBS). Thailand’s current prime minister, Prayut Chan-o-cha, dissolved parliament in March in preparation for the election (BBC, The Diplomat).
Resolution Criteria:
The question will resolve once voting has started on election day (i.e., not early voting) or once the 14 May deadline has passed. A “yes” resolution does not require that all ballots be counted or that a winner be announced, only that the election be held.
Additional Reading:
- Road to the 2023 Thailand Election: Five Things to Watch (AsiaMediaCentre)
Resolution Notes
Elections were held on 14 May 2023
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/14/asia/thailand-elections-vote-result-monday-intl-hnk/index.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/old-rivalries-new-battle-thailand-goes-polls-2023-05-13/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/14/thailand-election-results-what-we-know-so-far
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 98.23% | |
No | 1.77% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 57 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
Number of Forecasts | 102 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |