From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Started May 25, 2023 07:00PM
Closed Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM (10 months ago)

This question will resolve using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED). A spreadsheet containing select columns from events is available here. This spreadsheet will be updated monthly as new data becomes available. At the time of question launch, ACLED has recorded the following fatality counts due to gang violence in previous years: 

  • 2018: 668 
  • 2019: 535 
  • 2020: 222 
  • 2021: 256 
  • 2022: 217 
  • 2023 (as of 18 May 2023): 18 
Resolution Notes

ACLED recorded 29 fatalities due to gang violence from 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than or equal to 49 98%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive 2%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive 0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive 0%
More than or equal to 200 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 65
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 586
Average for questions older than 6 months: 228
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.159676
2.
-0.103331
3.
-0.093091
4.
-0.071349
5.
-0.067042

Consensus Trend

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 25, 2024 6:08AM EST (128 days before close, question was 66% complete)
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