From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Started
May 25, 2023 07:00PM
Closed Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM (10 months ago)
Closed Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM (10 months ago)
Seasons
This question will resolve using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED). A spreadsheet containing select columns from events is available here. This spreadsheet will be updated monthly as new data becomes available. At the time of question launch, ACLED has recorded the following fatality counts due to gang violence in previous years:
- 2018: 668
- 2019: 535
- 2020: 222
- 2021: 256
- 2022: 217
- 2023 (as of 18 May 2023): 18
Resolution Notes
ACLED recorded 29 fatalities due to gang violence from 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 98% | |
| Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 2% | |
| Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 0% | |
| Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than or equal to 200 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 65 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 586 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 228 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 25, 2024 6:08AM EST (128 days before close, question was 66% complete)