Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
Started
Jun 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
“Provenance" refers to the record of something's origin and history of ownership, and in a technological context, provenance can be used to verify the authenticity and integrity of digital content (The Bit). Because digital provenance shows where content came from, who created it, and how it has been edited over time, widespread adoption of provenance standards has the potential to become a critical tool for combating disinformation (Stanford Internet Observatory, NSCAI Report).
The Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA) is a standards organization with the goal of enabling "global, opt-in, adoption of digital provenance techniques […] while meeting appropriate security and privacy requirements, as well as human rights considerations” (C2PA Explainer). C2PA was founded by Adobe, Microsoft, Truepic, Arm, Intel, and the BBC to develop a common content provenance standard and combine the work of the previously established Content Authenticity Initiative and Project Origin (Adobe).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve “Yes” if YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter adds a feature enabling users to view digital provenance on photos or videos. The use of digital provenance does not need to be mandatory and the feature does not need to be available to all users to count towards resolution. Public opt-in or beta testing of a digital provenance feature would count towards resolution.
Question clarification
Issued on 08/10/23 03:43pm
Digital provenance provides verifiable information about the origin and authenticity of digital content. AI-generated summaries of digital content do not contain this information, and as a result would not count towards the resolution of this question.
Digital provenance provides verifiable information about the origin and authenticity of digital content. AI-generated summaries of digital content do not contain this information, and as a result would not count towards the resolution of this question.
Issued on 09/08/23 08:26pm
For this question to resolve “Yes,” YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter needs to support the display of a photo or video's provenance credentials. If such a capability is added, the question will resolve yes, regardless of the timing of when any given piece of content's provenance credentials were added (e.g., a provenance manifest added to a photo at some point after it was taken).
Additionally, while labelling AI-generated images does provide some information about its origins, this question is concerned with the implementation of a broader provenance standard like C2PA that applies to more than just AI-generated content.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | |
| No | 97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 148 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 646 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
