Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Started
Jun 22, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
Dysprosium is rare earth metal necessary for the manufacture of semiconductors and other advanced electronics, as it is used in laser materials, optical components, and high-performance magnets (EIT, U.S. International Trade Commission, ScienceDirect). The vast majority of the world’s dysprosium is mined and processed in China, and many are concerned that this geographical concentration is a risk to critical supply chains (CSIS, U.S. Department of Energy).
In 2010, China reduced their export quotas for rare earth metals (Reuters). This led to the price of dysprosium oxide rising to over $1400 per kg the following year (The Guardian, U.S. Geological Survey). The price of dysprosium has since stabilized, and the U.S. Geological Survey reported an average price of $390 per kg in 2022 (U.S. Geological Survey). The U.S. Geological Survey has reported the average price of dysprosium oxide (min 99.5%) each year in their Rare Earths Statistics and Information annual publications, beginning with the 2019 report.
Given the effect of the 2010 export quota on prices, concerns loom about whether geopolitical tensions could lead to a restriction in the supply of rare earth metals (Washington Post, Asia Times).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using the highest price of dysprosium oxide (min 99.5% fob China) reported by Argus Metals. On 20 June 2023, the high price was $304.00 per kg.
Additional Reading:
- China Dominates the Rare Earths Market. This U.S. Mine Is Trying to Change That. (Politico)
- What Happened to the Rare-Earths Crisis? (MIT Technology Review)
- China's Rare Earth Metals Monopoly Needn't Put An Electronics Stranglehold On America (Forbes)
- The curious case of rare earth: a non-crisis (Caixa Bank)
- BUILDING RESILIENT SUPPLY CHAINS, REVITALIZING AMERICAN MANUFACTURING, AND FOSTERING BROAD-BASED GROWTH (The White House)
- Rare Earth Metals and Semiconductor (EITC)
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | |
| No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 103 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 752 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
