Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Started Jun 22, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC

Taiwan is home to 92% of the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity (Semiconductor Industry Association). The concentration of this capacity in a single country makes it a critical and vulnerable component of global supply chains (Reuters, Bloomberg). Recent research has shown that even a short-term disruption at a Taiwan fabrication facility could have a long-lasting impact on the supply chain (HBR). Natural disasters and public health emergencies in Taiwan have impacted the semiconductor supply chain before, and some worry that geopolitical tensions have the potential to be even more disruptive (Ars Techinca, Chicago Tribune, PC Gamer). 

Resolution Criteria:

This question will be resolved using the Australian government’s travel advisory page for Taiwan. Australia provides travel advisories that include 4 levels (Smartraveller). These advisories consider a variety of risks, including those arising from natural disaster, public health emergencies, unrest, war, and crime. Level 3 (Reconsider Your Need to Travel) indicates serious and potentially life threatening risks. Level 4 (Do Not Travel) indicates that people’s health and safety are at extreme risk.  

Additional Reading:

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 89
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 726
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.00158
2.
-0.00158
3.
-0.001561
4.
-0.001298
5.
-0.001256

Consensus Trend

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