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Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Started May 10, 2024 08:30PM UTC
Closing Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Venezuela on 28 July 2024, with incumbent Nicolás Maduro running for his third term in office (CBS). The most recent presidential election in 2018 was widely considered illegitimate due to many alleged irregularities and was boycotted by both the main opposition coalition and many voters (Al Jazeera, CNN). Observers are concerned about this election as well, as human rights groups allege that the current government has escalated repression in the leadup to the election, including the arrests of prominent members of civil society and the expulsion of members of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (CSIS, AP News). If re-elected, Maduro’s term would begin on 10 January 2025 (El País).

Resolution Criteria:  
For the purposes of this question, Nicolás Maduro is currently the President of Venezuela, despite many countries not viewing his election as legitimate. Consequently, this question will be resolved as “Yes” unless Maduro voluntarily leaves office, dies, or someone else is sworn in as President instead before 11 January 2025, even if Maduro is not physically in the country. Any temporary exercise of the President’s duties by others (e.g., in the case of illness) will not affect resolution.

Question clarification
Issued on 09/20/24 06:36pm

Regarding the sentence in the resolution criteria that said, "Consequently, this question will be resolved as “Yes” unless he voluntarily leaves office, dies, or someone else is sworn in as President before 11 January 2025, even if he is not physically in the country," the "he" in both instances refers specifically to Nicolás Maduro. This sentence means that Maduro leaving the country would not necessarily count as him no longer being president unless he voluntarily leaves office, dies, or someone else is sworn in in his stead. The resolution criteria has been updated to make that clear.

In the event that there are competing claims on the Presidency (e.g., if both Maduro and González are sworn in by different groups claiming to be the legitimate government of Venezuela), the President will be considered the one operating out of Miraflores Palace, the official head office of the President of Venezuela, with the assumption that this is Nicolás Maduro unless credible reports indicate otherwise.

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