Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Started
Aug 29, 2024 07:00PM UTC
Forecast Window 6 months
Forecast Window 6 months
A coup d’etat, or coup, involves the use of illegal and overt tactics by a state perpetrator to overthrow the chief executive of a country (Powell & Thyne, 2011).
There has been a rise in coups in recent years, with seven African countries experiencing coups since 2020, including Mali in 2020 and 2021 (USIP), Chad in 2021 (BBC), Guinea in 2021 (Reuters), Sudan in 2021 (CNN), two in Burkina Faso in 2022 (France 24, Al Jazeera), Niger in 2023 (Carnegie Endowment), and Gabon in 2023 (Vice).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if open source news reports indicate that a coup has taken place in an African country.
A coup will be considered successful if the group attempting to seize power effectively removes the current leadership and establishes control over the government and military, and maintains authority without immediate and significant resistance.
Additionally, the following scenarios will be considered coups and count towards resolution:
- “Self-coups,” where a leader who came to power legally uses illegal means to remain in power, including the refusal by an incumbent government to relinquish power after free, fair, and regular elections.
- The replacement of a democratically elected government by mercenaries or other external actors will count towards resolution IF they are working in support of a state perpetrator.
The following scenarios will NOT count towards resolution:
- A civil war, rebellion, or popular uprising.
- Changes to a country’s constitution or laws that infringe on democracy.
In the event that it is not immediately clear that a coup was successful, the question will remain open, and if it is determined to be successful, it will be resolved as of the day that the coup began, so forecasts made after that date will not be included in scoring.
Note regarding the 2021 coup in Chad: In January 2021, president Idriss Déby Itno died in battle against rebel forces, and in response, the military dissolved the government and installed his son, General Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, as a transitional president in violation of Chad’s constitution (BBC). The U.S. government declined to call this a coup, which would trigger a halt of security assistance funding to a country considered an important ally in the war on terror (Foreign Policy). However, this situation is still considered a coup for the purposes of this question.