Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Started
Aug 29, 2024 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
Currently, China’s only military base in Africa is in Djibouti, for which construction was confirmed to begin in February 2016 (The Diplomat). Since the establishment of its military base in Djibouti in 2017, China has shown interest in expanding its military presence in Africa, with significant investments in commercial ports and infrastructure across the continent (USIP, Geopolitical Monitor).
In recent years, U.S. intelligence reports have indicated that China is considering establishing a military base in Equatorial Guinea, possibly in Bata, which is already home to a Chinese-built deep-water commercial port (Wall Street Journal, U.S. Department of Defense). However, while China has continued to invest heavily in trade and infrastructure projects in the country, plans for such a base have not been confirmed (The Diplomat, Foreign Policy). More recent U.S. government reports have indicated that China may be pursuing a military base in neighboring Gabon (Wall Street Journal, The Diplomat). Other possible locations include Angola, Namibia, Kenya, and Tanzania (Africa Center, The Standard, Modern Diplomacy).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using open-source news reports and/or official government statements indicating that a groundbreaking ceremony has taken place or that construction has begun on a military facility for use by the People’s Liberation Army in an African country other than Djibouti.
Additionally, the following scenarios will count towards resolution:
- The expansion, conversion, or transfer of an existing port or military facility to allow for use by the People’s Liberation Army, whether for their exclusive use or dual use.
- Reports that such a facility has been established or is operational, with no previous confirmation of an agreement or construction.
The following scenarios will NOT count towards resolution:
- Reports that negotiations are underway or that an agreement has been reached.
- Facilities used by Chinese personnel on UN peacekeeping missions will not count towards resolution.
- Reports that construction is underway on a suspected Chinese overseas military facility will not count unless or until such a facility is confirmed by statements from the Chinese or the relevant African country’s government.
Additionally, for the purposes of this question:
- Chinese officials may use the terms “logistical” or “support” facility rather than a “military base”, but any facility constructed for use by the People’s Liberation Army will be considered a military base.
- An “African country” includes African island nations (e.g., Seychelles, Cabo Verde, Madagascar, etc.).