Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Started
Aug 29, 2024 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
Wagner Group is a Russian private military company that was founded in 2014 (BBC). Following the death of the group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in 2023, much of Wagner Group operations and personnel in Africa have been folded into Russia's Ministry of Defense under the newly-created Africa Corps (New York Times). However, the exact structure and status of Wagner Group is still unclear, and mercenaries still operate under the Wagner name in some places (ACLED).
Africa Corps is already active in multiple countries, including Burkina Faso (deployed in January 2024), Mali (deployed in November 2023), Niger (deployed in April 2024), and Libya (deployed in April 2024). Wagner Group has also operated in the Central African Republic, Chad, Mozambique, Sudan, and Mauritania (ACLED).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if open-source news reports, official statements from the Togolese or other African country’s government, or statements from the Wagner Group or Africa Corps indicate that Wagner or Africa Corps has been deployed to the relevant African country. Note that Africa Corps has already been deployed to Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Libya, and Wagner Group has operated in the Central African Republic, Chad, Mozambique, Sudan, and Mauritania, so deployments to these countries will not count towards resolution.
Africa Corps has official Telegram channels in English and Russian. Telegram channels posting news about Wagner Group include GREY ZONE, Unloading Wagner, and PMC "Wagner" Republic of Belarus.
NOTE: You are required to provide forecasts for both of the answer options, but your forecasts need not sum to 100%, since either, both, or neither answer option may be correct.