Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024)

Started Jan 02, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC

In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a successor despite multiple votes, and the country remains in the hands of a caretaker administration (Associated Press, Reuters). This extended period without a president presents a serious risk to Lebanon’s national security and ability to combat its economic crisis (GIS, Crisis Group).


Resolution Criteria:  
This question will resolve “Yes” if reputable open-source news reports indicate that the Lebanese parliament has appointed a president.

This question is a resolved time period from Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 9%
No 91%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 34
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 110
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.023768
2.
-0.020157
3.
-0.014379
4.
-0.013711
5.
-0.01368

Consensus Trend

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