Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024)
Started
Jan 02, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Seasons
In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a successor despite multiple votes, and the country remains in the hands of a caretaker administration (Associated Press, Reuters). This extended period without a president presents a serious risk to Lebanon’s national security and ability to combat its economic crisis (GIS, Crisis Group).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve “Yes” if reputable open-source news reports indicate that the Lebanese parliament has appointed a president.
This question is a resolved time period from Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 9% | |
No | 91% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 34 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
Number of Forecasts | 110 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |