Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Started
Oct 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Forecast Window 6 months
Forecast Window 6 months
Tensions between North and South Korea often flare near the Northern Limit Line (NLL), a disputed maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea that was established by the United Nations after the Korean War (Wilson Center). North Korea does not recognize the NLL, calling it a “ghost” line and demanding the boundary be moved further south (Yonhap News Agency). This dispute has led to several confrontations over the years, including the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong island by North Korea in 2010 (CNN, BBC). Recent rhetoric and provocations have raised concerns that the situation around the NLL could escalate significantly (Hankyoreh, The Diplomat).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if it is reported by a credible news organization that North Korean military forces have fired upon, rammed, or otherwise physically attacked any South Korean naval or civilian vessel, island, or other asset in or near the waters of the Northern Limit Line.
The following events will not count as a “Yes” resolution:
- Verbal threats or warnings without physical action.
- Incidents that occur on land or in maritime areas outside the Yellow Sea (West Sea) region near the NLL.
- Brief crossings of the NLL without engagement or other such minor incidents.
- The firing of artillery near the NLL (for example, the firing drill conducted by North Korea in January 2024), unless the fire is directed at a South Korean target.
Note that the Northwest Islands should be considered South Korean islands for the purposes of this question.