Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?
Started
Oct 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed
Closed
The South China Sea is one of the most geopolitically contentious regions in the world, with overlapping territorial claims from several nations, including China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, and Vietnam (CFR). The various islands, reefs, and shoals in the South China Sea (such as the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal) are valuable not only for their strategic military positioning but also for their potential economic benefits, particularly in terms of fishing rights, undersea natural resources, and control of vital maritime trade routes (BBC, Geopolitical Monitor). China has been especially assertive in the region, using both official Coast Guard and Navy ships, as well as unofficial maritime militias, to enforce its claims and confront other nations’ ships in the South China Sea (AP News, The Guardian).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved as “Yes” if open-source news reports, official statements from the Chinese government, or statements from governments that also dispute the maritime features (such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, or Taiwan) indicate that the China Coast Guard or People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy has attempted to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025. Attempts by unofficial or quasi-official Chinese ships (i.e., China’s “maritime militia”) will not count toward resolution.
An “attempt to anchor” is defined as any clear action to position or moor a vessel at or near the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea, even if such an attempt is disrupted or unsuccessful. Routine patrols or transits that do not involve an effort to anchor will not count toward resolution.
Disputed features in the South China Sea include, but are not limited to, the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal (Congressional Research Service).
This question has been suspended.