Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Started Oct 4, 2024 05:00PM
Forecast Window 6 months

North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017 (Union of Concerned Scientists), and is believed to currently possess enough material for dozens of nuclear weapons (SIPRI). 

In 2022, North Korea tested 70 missiles, including short-, medium- and long-range missiles, which is more than at any time in its history (Union of Concerned Scientists). Most recently, North Korea tested new tactical ballistic missiles using super-large warheads and modified cruise missiles on September 18, 2024 (Reuters). North Korea also faces accusations of supplying Russia with weapons including drones and ballistic missiles to be used in the war in Ukraine (Reuters).

Recent intelligence from South Korea's National Intelligence Service suggests a seventh nuclear test may occur after the U.S. presidential election in November 2024, potentially accompanied by satellite launches and missile tests (Kyodo News). This information comes amid signs of renovation at the previously "destroyed" Punggye-ri nuclear test site and Kim Jong Un's recent visit to a uranium enrichment facility (Union of Concerned Scientists, BBC). 

Resolution Criteria: 
This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports and official government statements. A nuclear test would involve the detonation of a nuclear device, as confirmed by seismic activity and/or radiation detection by international monitoring agencies. Radiological devices (also known as "dirty bombs") will not be considered nuclear weapons (Mass.gov).
You are forecasting the likelihood that this will happen between Feb 12, 2025 and Aug 12, 2025. Unless you update it, this forecast will expire on Mar 12, 2025.
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