Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Started Oct 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC

Note: You are asked to submit a forecast between 0-100% chance for EACH of the countries listed, as this may occur for one, multiple, or none.

Sovereign debt defaults occur when a government is unable or unwilling to meet its financial obligations to external creditors. Sub-Saharan African countries have faced increasing debt pressures in recent years and the risk of debt distress remains a concern (IMF). 

  • Angola has not defaulted on its external debt in recent decades. Its debt situation has improved recently, yet it remains vulnerable, with significant exposure to Chinese loans (S&P Global, Reuters). Its external debt is projected to be about 52.9% of GDP for 2024 (IMF). 
  • Kenya has not defaulted on its external debt since gaining independence in 1963. However, it faces increasing pressure from rising debt levels, a depreciating currency, and pressures from external lenders such as China (Chatham House). Its external debt is projected to be about 38% of GDP in 2024 (IMF). 
  • Ethiopia defaulted on its external debt in December 2023 after failing to make a payment on its only international bond (VOA, Reuters). Its external debt is projected to be 13.9% of its GDP in 2024 (IMF).
  • Nigeria has not defaulted on its external debt since it received debt relief in 2005-2006. However, its external debt increased significantly in 2023 compared to the previous year and faces significant fiscal pressures (Brookings, Wikipedia, IMF).


Resolution Criteria: 

This question will be resolved as "Yes" for any given country if credible financial news sources or international financial institutions (such as the IMF, World Bank, or major credit rating agencies) report that the country’s government has entered a form of sovereign default, such as by missing a payment on external debt obligations and not making the payment within an applicable grace period, or announcing a moratorium on external debt payments. A default will be considered to have occurred at the earliest instance reported by a major financial news source or institution.

For the purpose of this question, "external debt" refers to debt issued under foreign jurisdictions or denominated in foreign currencies. Temporary payment delays due to technical issues that are quickly resolved will not be considered defaults.

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