Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Started
Oct 07, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Seasons
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a multi-ethnic coalition primarily composed of Kurdish fighters, established in 2015 with U.S. support to combat ISIS. The SDF has maintained control over key regions in northeastern Syria, including Manbij, Raqqa, and parts of Deir ez-Zor.
However, the SDF faces numerous challenges that threaten its stability and territorial integrity. In recent years, the SDF has dealt with increasing pressure from various fronts, including Turkish military operations aimed at curbing Kurdish autonomy, ongoing conflicts with remnants of ISIS, and tensions with the Syrian government. The SDF's governance model has been challenged by internal strife, particularly in areas with significant Arab populations, which have led to clashes and accusations of marginalization (ECFR).
Recent reports indicate that fighting erupted between the SDF and Arab tribal groups in Deir ez-Zor after the SDF apprehended a local leader, resulting in casualties and displacement (Security Council Report). Additionally, as U.S. support has waned under changing political administrations, the SDF's vulnerability to external threats has increased (CFR). Given these factors, there is growing concern about the SDF's ability to maintain control over its territories amidst external pressures and internal divisions.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve as "Yes" if credible news sources or international organizations report the SDF has experienced any of the following:
- Collapsed: This would be evidenced by reports from SDF leadership that the SDF has disbanded or that they can no longer function as a cohesive military or administrative entity.
- Fragmented: This would be evidenced by reports of significant divisions within the SDF leading to splinter groups that operate independently or engage in conflict with each other.
- Lost Control Over Key Territories: Reports need to indicate that Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor are no longer under effective SDF governance. Indicators of loss of control may include significant armed conflict resulting in the SDF being unable to maintain security or governance in these areas; withdrawal of SDF forces due to overwhelming opposition; and the emergence of rival administrations or armed groups asserting control over these territories, leading to a breakdown in SDF-led governance structures.
The question will resolve as "No" if none of these events occur before 1 October 2026.
Question clarification
Issued on 10/14/24 03:29pm
For the purposes of this question, when we refer to "the territories of Manbij, Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor", we are referring to the broader regions of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), the political and administrative body that governs the regions defended by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Below is a general outline of the regions currently under AANES/SDF control:
- Manbij: This includes the city of Manbij and its surrounding areas under the control of the Manbij Military Council (MMC), which is part of the SDF. This area extends to the western banks of the Euphrates River but does not include territories beyond the river.
- Raqqa: This refers to the city of Raqqa and the Raqqa Region as defined by the AANES. It does not encompass the entire Raqqa Governorate, but rather the areas currently under SDF control, which are predominantly north and east of the city but include some territory south of the Euphrates as well.
- Deir ez-Zor: This includes the parts of Deir ez-Zor currently under SDF control, primarily the areas east of the Euphrates River. It does not include the entire Deir ez-Zor Governorate, as much of the governorate is under the control of the Syrian government, including Deir ez-Zor city itself.
The Syrian Democratic Council (the political leadership of the AANES) includes a map of the regions of the AANES on the website of their diplomatic mission to the U.S. Note that the boundaries are not exact and the city of Deir ez-Zor is not considered to be currently under control of the SDF, for the purposes of this question.
