Will any CBRN weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) be used by a state actor in an armed conflict by 31 December 2030?
Started
Jan 23, 2025 06:00PM
Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM (8 days ago)
Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM (8 days ago)
Please note you are being asked to provide a forecast between 0% and 100% for EACH answer option as multiple answer options may occur.
The use of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons is prohibited by various international treaties and conventions. However, historical precedents and ongoing global tensions necessitate continued vigilance and preparedness.
- Chemical weapons rely on chemical substances to cause death or harm. Examples include nerve agents (sarin, VX) and blister agents (mustard gas). The 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention aims to ban their use globally, yet they have been employed in conflicts, such as in Syria by the Assad regime in 2013 and 2017 (OPCW, UNODA).
- Biological weapons involve pathogens or toxins to cause disease or death. Anthrax and botulinum toxin are examples. The 1972 Biological Weapons Convention prohibits their development and use, though concerns persist about their potential deployment by state or non-state actors (UNODA).
- Radiological weapons, commonly known as "dirty bombs," are devices that spread radioactive materials using conventional explosives. Unlike nuclear weapons, they do not involve nuclear fission or fusion. They have not been documented as being used in conflict but are considered a significant security threat (European Leadership Network).
- Nuclear weapons derive destructive power from nuclear reactions and have not been used in warfare since 1945. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons (ICAN: Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists).
Resolution Criteria:
This is an unscored question that closes for forecasting on 11 February 2025. Although this is an unscored question, we outline the theoretical resolution criteria here.
This question would be resolved as “Yes” if, on or before 31 December 2030, the following is met:
- Use of any listed weapon is verifiably confirmed by at least two recognized international bodies (e.g., UN, OPCW, IAEA) or by a consortium of at least three reputable national intelligence agencies from different countries.
- The use of any specified weapon must be by a state actor in the context of an armed conflict as defined through conventional international humanitarian law, which includes both international armed conflicts (IACs) and non-international armed conflicts (NIACs). The use of chemical weapons in Syria by the Assad regime would be an example of the latter.
A "state actor" is defined as any recognized sovereign entity that has the authority to govern a defined territory and population, possessing full sovereignty under international law.
This question is part of a series on emerging capabilities in biotechnology and the biomedical sciences.
Question clarification
Issued on 02/06/25 11:32pm
"Chemical weapons" specifically refers to chemicals listed in Schedule 1 of the Annex on Chemicals to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), as maintained by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW): https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention/annexes/annex-chemicals/schedule-1. This excludes riot control agents (such as tear gas) which are not listed in Schedule 1 and are permitted for law enforcement purposes but prohibited in warfare under the CWC.
"Chemical weapons" specifically refers to chemicals listed in Schedule 1 of the Annex on Chemicals to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), as maintained by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW): https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention/annexes/annex-chemicals/schedule-1. This excludes riot control agents (such as tear gas) which are not listed in Schedule 1 and are permitted for law enforcement purposes but prohibited in warfare under the CWC.
This question has ended, but is awaiting resolution by an admin.
Possible Answer | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|
Chemical | 35% |
Biological | 8% |
Radiological | 2% |
Nuclear | 4% |