Will the FDA approve the repurposing of a drug originally indicated for a neurodegenerative disease to also treat traumatic brain injuries by 31 December 2030?

Started Jan 23, 2025 06:00PM
Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM (2 days ago)

Drug repurposing, the process of finding new therapeutic uses for existing drugs, is increasingly seen as a promising pathway for developing new treatments, as it can significantly reduce development time and costs compared to creating new drugs (Russian Journal of Bioorganic Chemistry). This approach has shown promise in treating various neurological disorders, including Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease.
For traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) in particular, several neurodegenerative disease drugs are being investigated as potential treatments (Frontiers in Neuroscience, Current Medicinal Chemistry). TBIs and neurodegenerative diseases share some common pathological mechanisms, including inflammation, vascular dysfunction, oxidative stress, and the accumulation of pathological proteins (Biological Psychiatry, Frontiers in Pharmacology, The Lancet).

However, the success rate for drug repurposing is not guaranteed, and only about 30% of repurposed drugs achieve market approval (Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery and Psychiatry, PubMed Central). While repurposed drugs have shown promise in preclinical studies, none have yet succeeded in phase 3 trials for the treatment of TBIs. In-silico approaches and artificial intelligence are playing an increasingly crucial role in drug repurposing by helping to accelerate compound and drug target selection (Nature, Drug Repurposing Central).

Resolution Criteria:
This is an unscored question that closes for forecasting on 11 February 2025. Although this is an unscored question, we outline the theoretical resolution criteria here.

This question would be resolved as “Yes” if, on or before 31 December 2030, the FDA grants new or expanded approval for a drug that was previously approved for treating at least one neurodegenerative disease (e.g., Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, ALS, Multiple Sclerosis, Huntington's) to be used specifically for treating traumatic brain injuries.

The approval would need to be a full, standard FDA approval. Preliminary, temporary, or limited approval statuses would not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

This question has ended, but is awaiting resolution by an admin.

Possible Answer Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 20%
No 80%
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