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Related question. We previously published a version of this question for Japanese FY 2020.  

Context. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force), typically in April of each year. The years being forecasted are the Japanese Fiscal Year, which for FY 2021 is April 1, 2021 through March 31, 2022.

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The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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