How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?
Closed Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
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Related question. We previously published versions of this question—asking about revenue over a six-month period—forecasting the first half of 2021 and the second half of 2021. You can view those forecasts here and here.
Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. The historical and forecasted values are a four-quarter rolling sum. Forecasting for each six-month period ends halfway through the period.
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The historical data underlying the graph is here.
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What are forecasters saying? Here is a periodically updated synopsis of forecaster rationales.
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Final Crowd Forecast
Time Period | 90% chance to be above | Crowd Forecast | 90% chance to be below |
---|---|---|---|
2021 H2 | 1046.68 | 1474.25 | 2358.78 |
2022 H1 | 1204.89 | 1576.46 | 2250.9 |
2022 H2 | 1238.39 | 1601.54 | 2348.64 |
2023 H1 | 1266.66 | 1694.83 | 2622.62 |
2023 H2 | 1301.84 | 1814.64 | 2933.16 |
2024 H1 | 1363.67 | 1944.7 | 3336.73 |
2024 H2 | 1392.85 | 2001.39 | 2933.47 |
2025 H1 | 1499.91 | 2046.52 | 2973.45 |