How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2021 H2

Started Aug 24, 2021 01:30PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC

This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this blog post.

Related question. We previously published versions of this question—asking about the amount of money raised over a six-month period—forecasting the second half of 2020 and the second half of 2021. You can view those forecasts here and here.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. 

The historical and forecasted values are a four-quarter rolling sum. This question resolves based on data available 30 days after the end of each period. The question—and the graph below—therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. Forecasting for each six-month period ends halfway through the period. 

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The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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Resolution Notes

The answer is $67.2 billion


This question is a resolved time period from How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 20 4%
More than or equal to 20 but less than 30 4%
More than or equal to 30 but less than 40 10%
More than or equal to 40 but less than 50 20%
More than or equal to 50 but less than 60 28%
More than or equal to 60 but less than 70 17%
More than or equal to 70 but less than 80 8%
More than or equal to 80 but less than 90 4%
More than or equal to 90 but less than 110 3%
More than or equal to 110 but less than 130 1%
More than or equal to 130 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 36
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 47
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.076381
2.
-0.058324
3.
-0.049915
4.
-0.046026
5.
-0.037957
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