Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?
Started
Jan 31, 2022 01:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM UTC
Closed Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM UTC
Seasons
The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence identified developments in micro-electronics and semiconductors as critical to the United States' competitive strategy (NSCAI Chapter 13). The Facilitating American-Built Semiconductors Act would offer an investment tax credit for investments in semiconductor manufacturing (Congress.Gov, Senate Finance). Tech companies are lobbying not only for passage, but for expansion of the credit to cover semiconductor design as well (Bloomberg, SIA).
Resolution Notes
Both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives passed H.R. 4346, the The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, which contains provisions for a tax credit for investments in semiconductor manufacturing.
https://www.commerce.senate.gov/services/files/1201E1CA-73CB-44BB-ADEB-E69634DA9BB9
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/senate-passes-280-billion-bill-for-chips-scientific-research-in-64-33-vote-heres-whats-in-it-11658944681
https://www.computerworld.com/article/3668175/us-senate-approves-52-billion-for-chipmakersbut-not-designers.html
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, for both manufacturing and design | 24% | |
| Yes, for only manufacturing | 55% | |
| Yes, for only design | 2% | |
| No | 18% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 75 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 343 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
