Forecasted Questions
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 10:08PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 10:08PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 12% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 10% | +2% | -1% |
No | 88% | Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 | Nov 28, 2024 | 90% | -2% | +1% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 12:25PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 07, 2024 12:25PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Nov 7, 2024 to May 7, 2025 | Feb 7, 2025 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts
24 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 09, 2024 10:09AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 09, 2024 10:09AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 09, 2024 10:15AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 09, 2024 10:15AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 09, 2024 10:27AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 09, 2024 10:27AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | 0% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 09, 2024 10:44AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 09, 2024 10:44AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 25% | Nov 9, 2024 to May 9, 2025 | Dec 9, 2024 | 7% | +18% | +1% |
No | 75% | Nov 9, 2024 to May 9, 2025 | Dec 9, 2024 | 93% | -18% | -1% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 09, 2024 10:57AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 09, 2024 10:57AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | Nov 9, 2024 to May 9, 2025 | Dec 9, 2024 | 1% | +2% | +1% |
No | 97% | Nov 9, 2024 to May 9, 2025 | Dec 9, 2024 | 99% | -2% | -1% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 09, 2024 11:07AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 09, 2024 11:07AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 15% | Nov 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2025 | Feb 9, 2025 | 12% | +3% | +4% |
No | 85% | Nov 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2025 | Feb 9, 2025 | 88% | -3% | -4% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 09, 2024 11:25AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 09, 2024 11:25AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 35% | 36% | -1% | -1% |
No | 65% | 64% | +1% | +1% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 09, 2024 11:33AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 09, 2024 11:33AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 8% | 5% | +3% | +0% |
No | 92% | 95% | -3% | +0% |