Going a tiny bit hogher than crowd, but much lower than my previous forecasts. I do'nt have anything to add to the discussion. Other forecasters have made good points, check their rationales.
-0.450261
Relative Brier Score
216
Forecasts
19
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 13 | 365 | 216 | 719 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 12 | 71 | 46 | 98 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 32 | 19 | 80 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-11%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
98%
(+11%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-3%)
Yes
90%
(+3%)
No
Lowering with passage of time and a small update down based on other forecasters arguments. It seems like it wouldn't make sense for Huawei to join O-RAN alliance or even collaborate in any way with O-RAN. On the other hand the question has a long timeframe and very loose resolution criteria. Even a small collaboation counts, which might mean no more than a 'resource commitment'.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-2%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
85%
(+2%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Adjusting. My reasoning from a few forecasts back still mostly stands (though the situation in Middle-East has evolved). Still adjusting s bit down
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
100%
(+1%)
No
Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025
Six months is definitely too soon for any listed country to normalize relations with Israel.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-6%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
96%
(+6%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
There have been mixed reactions in the forecaster crowd in response to the conflict with Israel. Overall the crowd has moved towards no since my last forecast. I'll also move down, though less so.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
24%
(+4%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
66%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
10%
(-4%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Adjusting, but mostly keeping the same forecast. Putting less probability to O-RAN stopping, since the crowd leans that way. Putting that probability to integration to express more uncertainty.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-31%)
Yes
85%
(+31%)
No
Updating much down. Not much time and no infication of a ceasefire succeeding.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
10%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Updating closer to crowd with time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
46%
(+4%)
Yes
54%
(-4%)
No
Adjusting. Talks of a ceasefire are happening continuously, but as we have seen they are not guarantees. Both parties have expressed that a 6 week ceasefire is in the realm of possibility.
Files