-1.008693
Relative Brier Score
719
Forecasts
80
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 8 | 13 | 365 | 216 | 719 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
Questions Forecasted | 8 | 12 | 71 | 46 | 98 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 32 | 19 | 80 |
Definitions |
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
EA College Tournament,
Decoding Disinformation,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Lowering with passage of time and a small update down based on other forecasters arguments. It seems like it wouldn't make sense for Huawei to join O-RAN alliance or even collaborate in any way with O-RAN. On the other hand the question has a long timeframe and very loose resolution criteria. Even a small collaboation counts, which might mean no more than a 'resource commitment'.
Adjusting. My reasoning from a few forecasts back still mostly stands (though the situation in Middle-East has evolved). Still adjusting s bit down
Six months is definitely too soon for any listed country to normalize relations with Israel.
There have been mixed reactions in the forecaster crowd in response to the conflict with Israel. Overall the crowd has moved towards no since my last forecast. I'll also move down, though less so.
Adjusting, but mostly keeping the same forecast. Putting less probability to O-RAN stopping, since the crowd leans that way. Putting that probability to integration to express more uncertainty.
Updating much down. Not much time and no infication of a ceasefire succeeding.
Updating closer to crowd with time.
Adjusting. Talks of a ceasefire are happening continuously, but as we have seen they are not guarantees. Both parties have expressed that a 6 week ceasefire is in the realm of possibility.