Forecasted Questions
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 03, 2024 07:03AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 03, 2024 07:03AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Oman | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Qatar | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 03, 2024 07:03AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 03, 2024 07:03AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 03, 2024 07:19AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 03, 2024 07:19AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | Oct 3, 2024 to Oct 3, 2025 | Jan 3, 2025 | 22% | +13% | -2% |
| No | 65% | Oct 3, 2024 to Oct 3, 2025 | Jan 3, 2025 | 78% | -13% | +2% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 04, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025 | Jan 4, 2025 | 12% | -7% | +5% |
| No | 95% | Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025 | Jan 4, 2025 | 88% | +7% | -5% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 02:05PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 04, 2024 02:05PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 02:05PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 04, 2024 02:05PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 3% | 3% | 0% | -1% |
| Kyiv | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Odesa | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 02:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 04, 2024 02:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 02:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 04, 2024 02:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 5% | 7% | -2% | +0% |
| Armenia | 4% | 2% | +2% | +1% |
| Georgia | 3% | 4% | -1% | +1% |
| Kazakhstan | 4% | 2% | +2% | +1% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 02:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 04, 2024 02:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 25% | 4% | +21% | -15% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 75% | 94% | -19% | +14% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 02:10PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 04, 2024 02:10PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 34% | -25% | +23% |
| No | 91% | 66% | +25% | -23% |