Updating with crowd movement
-0.407947
Relative Brier Score
232
Forecasts
19
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 334 | 232 | 735 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 70 | 46 | 98 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 28 | 19 | 80 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-5%)
Yes
90%
(+5%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
34%
(-6%)
Yes
66%
(+6%)
No
Lowering with time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-4%)
Yes
91%
(+4%)
No
Extremizing since crowd has moved my way.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 24%
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
25%
(-5%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
75%
(+6%)
More than or equal to 28%
Going closer to crowd.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
4%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
4%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
3%
(0%)
Latvia
3%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(0%)
Odesa
Last 3 months
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-4%)
Yes
95%
(+4%)
No
Little time left
Files
Adjusting.