29th
Accuracy Rank

Akkete

About:
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-0.094161

Relative Brier Score
13613002468101214
Questions Forecasted
1110-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.1
Scored Questions

25

Forecasts

2

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
LessMoreDecJanFebMarSuMoTuWeThFrSa
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 7 235 25 790
Comments 0 5 17 16 69
Questions Forecasted 0 7 45 13 100
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 18 2 84
 Definitions
New Badge
Akkete
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Feb 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

A really long timeframe for once. For one year I would put the probability at 1% max. For now I'll just multiply that by 5 and add 1% to account for improved technological progress.

For a more informed forecast I would look at the base rates of natural biological events, and adjust for the added constraint that this has to be human caused.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Maybe plant diseases are very common? i don't know much about them. Maybe technology really has made artificial pathogens way more common and I haven't internalized this?

Files
New Comment

A good question and the correct answer seems uncertain.

As others have noted, the phrasing "a significant reduction or complete halt of military operations" is perhaps too unclear. I understand that requiring simply a "complete halt" would be unnecessarily strict. The way I see this going is that suppose a ceasefire is agreed upon, but one or both parties accuse the other of breaking the ceasefire. Does this mean the ceasefire failed? Or is these kinds of accusations expected and if military activity is noticeably reduced that's enough?

I don't think this unambiguity is a deal breaker for the question, though. As other's have suggested it might make sense to instead forecast whether a  ceasefire will be agreed upon and started, but not requiring it to hold for 30 days. This is a possibility, but has it's own downsides.



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New Comment

As others have said, the crowd consensus would probably be <10% pretty much from the start. I don't think that's too big of a problem, though. It's inevitable that that happens to some questions, and the 0–1% forecasts are occasionally proven overconfident, which is part of the process. I would personally forecast more like 15% initially.

However, it makes sense to try to aim for as close to 50% as possible. One way this could be achieved by loosening the resolution criteria – instead of full membership, ask about an earlier step in the process. The criteria should still be strict enough that the question is meaningful, so this probably can't change the question or the probability much. A second possibility is to extend the timeframe. However, three years is already long and it's unclear how valuable longer timeframe forecasts are (plus practical problems). 


Apart from these concerns, the question description, additional resources and resolution criteria seem good.

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New Prediction
Akkete
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
8% (-8%)
Yes
92% (+8%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Keeping my distance to the crowd. The current situation is that Nvidia is #2, but further behind Apple than before.

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Why might you be wrong?

I might underestimate how quickly the market situation can evolve.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Akkete
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (0%)
Moldova
3% (0%)
Armenia
3% (0%)
Georgia
3% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Akkete
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Estonia
2% (0%)
Latvia
2% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Akkete
made their 12th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-1%)
Yes
100% (+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Election date in November announced. That makes it safe to say that that is earliest time they are possible.

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Why might you be wrong?

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