Next to no chance of a full invasion. A blockade or warning shot is an outside possibility if the new president says or does something rash.
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This forecast expired on Mar 14, 2024 09:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Feb 14, 2024 to Aug 14, 2024
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Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Very unlikely the Houthis will either be sufficiently suppressed or content with the Gaza situation by 31/3
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Not enough organised opposition with sufficient power to make it happen. Unless he drops dead of course, which if the cancer rumours are true is a possibility, hence a few % chance.