Next to no chance of a full invasion. A blockade or warning shot is an outside possibility if the new president says or does something rash.
0.005023
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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Definitions |
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Artificial Intelligence,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Iran-VNSAs
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This forecast expired on Mar 14, 2024 09:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Feb 14, 2024 to Aug 14, 2024
Files
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Active Forecaster
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Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Very unlikely the Houthis will either be sufficiently suppressed or content with the Gaza situation by 31/3
Files
Not enough organised opposition with sufficient power to make it happen. Unless he drops dead of course, which if the cancer rumours are true is a possibility, hence a few % chance.