Not obvious Russia has any real interest in a ceasefire, or will feel inclined to accept any deal Ukraine can stomach.
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Comments | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
10%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
30%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
30%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
30%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
US clearly wants a ceasefire.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
Not enough organised opposition with sufficient power to make it happen. Unless he drops dead of course, which if the cancer rumours are true is a possibility, hence a few % chance.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 14, 2024 09:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Feb 14, 2024 to Aug 14, 2024
Next to no chance of a full invasion. A blockade or warning shot is an outside possibility if the new president says or does something rash.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Very unlikely the Houthis will either be sufficiently suppressed or content with the Gaza situation by 31/3
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Russia has steered very close to the limit of plausible deniability, and may well feel that with US support to Ukraine shaky it can scare Europe.
Why might you be wrong?
Obviously it would be highly escalatory.