Iran will have to respond to Israel killing its elite commanders in it's "consulate" in Syria on Apr 2st; will likely use Hezbollah in its response, drawing Israel into declaring war on H.
-0.038034
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 2, 2024 09:34PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
Yes
Apr 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2024
60%
No
Apr 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Israel might be drawn into more active confrontation with H. but refrain from declaring war.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 26, 2024 08:55AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Mar 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2024
100%
No
Mar 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2024
Hell will freeze over first :)
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 25, 2024 08:42PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
Yes
Mar 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
88%
No
Mar 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
He's 84 and a cancer survivor
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
2023 Q2
0%
2023 Q3
0%
2023 Q4
0%
2024 Q1
0%
2024 Q2
Things don't change so quickly
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Very difficult for text
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
not much time is left and not much seems to be happening on C2PA website.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
with just a week to go, nothing is happening
Files
Same as for the 6 month time horizon question