Iran will have to respond to Israel killing its elite commanders in it's "consulate" in Syria on Apr 2st; will likely use Hezbollah in its response, drawing Israel into declaring war on H.
-0.262372
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Iran-VNSAs,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Decoding Disinformation,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 2, 2024 09:34PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
Yes
Apr 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2024
60%
No
Apr 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Israel might be drawn into more active confrontation with H. but refrain from declaring war.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 26, 2024 08:55AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Mar 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2024
100%
No
Mar 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2024
Hell will freeze over first :)
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 25, 2024 08:42PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
Yes
Mar 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
88%
No
Mar 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
He's 84 and a cancer survivor
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
2023 Q2
0%
2023 Q3
0%
2023 Q4
0%
2024 Q1
0%
2024 Q2
Things don't change so quickly
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Very difficult for text
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
not much time is left and not much seems to be happening on C2PA website.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
with just a week to go, nothing is happening
Files
Same as for the 6 month time horizon question