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DKC

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I love dogs, travel, writing, and geopolitical forecasting. And I feel fortunate to have all of those in my life.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? 0.001905
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.233821
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.000005
Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023? -0.003303
May 25, 2022 02:09PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022? 0.003984
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll? 0.089485
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? -0.049149
Apr 27, 2022 09:00PM UTC When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD? -0.031975
Mar 16, 2022 04:00PM UTC In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial? -0.132676
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? 0.013994
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.556131
Feb 24, 2022 03:00PM UTC What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022? 0.009706
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) -0.006739
Feb 11, 2022 10:00PM UTC How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.033735
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.011197
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.013003
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.005361
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) -0.003597
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) 0.028067
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) -0.00045
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