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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season
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    Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

    Forecast Count:
    19 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
    (2 years from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 9, 2025 03:54PM
    (8 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Yes 35% 39%
    No 65% 61%

    What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

    Forecast Count:
    15 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (7 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 9, 2025 04:09PM
    (8 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Less than or equal to 9% 0% 0%
    Between 10% and 19%, inclusive 1% 6%
    Between 20% and 29%, inclusive 80% 80%
    Between 30% and 39%, inclusive 18% 12%
    More than or equal to 40% 1% 1%

    Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    22 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 11, 2025 08:08PM
    (6 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 0% 1%
    Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 1% 2%
    Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 0% 0%
    Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 0% 0%

    Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    45 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (4 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 11, 2025 08:11PM
    (6 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Yes 0% 2%
    No 100% 98%

    Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    27 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (4 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 13, 2025 03:22AM
    (4 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Yes 0% 1%
    No 100% 99%

    Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

    Forecast Count:
    34 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
    (2 years from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 13, 2025 09:23PM
    (3 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Moldova 4% 7%
    Armenia 1% 2%
    Georgia 2% 4%
    Kazakhstan 1% 1%

    Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

    Forecast Count:
    32 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
    (2 years from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 14, 2025 06:49PM
    (3 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Estonia 3% 2%
    Latvia 3% 2%
    Lithuania 3% 2%

    Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

    Forecast Count:
    14 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (10 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 15, 2025 08:44PM
    (1 day ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Togo 10% 11%
    Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations 50% 33%

    What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

    Forecast Count:
    16 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (7 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 16, 2025 07:36PM
    (13 hours ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Less than or equal to 49 0% 0%
    Between 50 and 59, inclusive 2% 4%
    Between 60 and 69, inclusive 30% 37%
    Between 70 and 79, inclusive 53% 51%
    More than or equal to 80 15% 7%
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