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I love dogs, travel, writing, and geopolitical forecasting. And I feel fortunate to have all of those in my life.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 22, 2024 11:45AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 0% 1%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 35 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 23, 2024 09:11AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 24, 2024 07:39AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Togo 70% 33%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations 25% 40%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 25, 2024 10:42AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 0% 4%
Kyiv 0% 1%
Odesa 0% 1%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 26, 2024 11:22AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 Dec 26, 2024 3%
No 99% Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 Dec 26, 2024 97%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 26, 2024 02:21PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 45% Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 Oct 26, 2024 54%
No 55% Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 Oct 26, 2024 46%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 11:03AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 8% 7%
Armenia 2% 1%
Georgia 6% 3%
Kazakhstan 0% 1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 11:06AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 28, 2024 09:43AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 38% 41%
No 62% 59%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 01:21PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%
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