Forecasted Questions
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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 03:54PM
(8 days ago)
Mar 9, 2025 03:54PM
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 39% | -4% | +1% |
| No | 65% | 61% | +4% | -1% |
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 04:09PM
(8 days ago)
Mar 9, 2025 04:09PM
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 9% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 10% and 19%, inclusive | 1% | 6% | -5% | -2% |
| Between 20% and 29%, inclusive | 80% | 80% | +0% | +1% |
| Between 30% and 39%, inclusive | 18% | 12% | +6% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 40% | 1% | 1% | +0% | +1% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 11, 2025 08:08PM
(5 days ago)
Mar 11, 2025 08:08PM
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
45 Forecasts
45 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 11, 2025 08:11PM
(5 days ago)
Mar 11, 2025 08:11PM
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts
27 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 13, 2025 03:22AM
(4 days ago)
Mar 13, 2025 03:22AM
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
34 Forecasts
34 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 13, 2025 09:23PM
(3 days ago)
Mar 13, 2025 09:23PM
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 4% | 7% | -3% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 2% | 4% | -2% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
32 Forecasts
32 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 14, 2025 06:49PM
(3 days ago)
Mar 14, 2025 06:49PM
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 3% | 2% | +1% | 0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2025 08:44PM
(1 day ago)
Mar 15, 2025 08:44PM
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 10% | 11% | -1% | 0% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 50% | 33% | +17% | -1% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 16, 2025 07:36PM
(12 hours ago)
Mar 16, 2025 07:36PM
(12 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 2% | 4% | -2% | +0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 30% | 37% | -7% | +0% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 53% | 51% | +2% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 80 | 15% | 7% | +8% | +0% |